COVID-19 From my Perspective

[Bucephalus]

Sensible discussion invited.
COVID-19 Virus: Symptoms are generally mild with most sufferers recovering within six days.

With its longest exposure to COVID-19, we can examine China’s reported figures and extrapolate a reasonable forecast. From a population of approximately 1,437,731,640 there have been 74,576 (0.005%) infections from which 2,118 (0.00015%) deaths occurred. Probably, many of the deaths occurred in the elderly either by (a) age-related declining immune system, (b) life-long heavy smokers who consequently suffer pre-existing pulmonary damage, or (c) poor hygiene practices coupled with ready access to and treatment at proper health care facilities in more remote areas.

Timeline:
31st Dec 2019: China alerts WHO to several cases of unusual and previously unknown pneumonia.
11th Jan 2020: China announces first virus death of an elderly male who purchased goods from a seafood market.
22nd Jan: 17 deaths, 550 infections.
23rd Jan: Wuhan placed under quarantine.
25th Jan: Lunar New Year events cancelled.
30th Jan: 170 deaths, 7,711 infections. Virus now detected in all 31 provinces
1st Feb: 259 deaths, 11,791 infections.
8th Feb: 722 deaths, 34,546 infections.
15th Feb: 1,500 deaths, 66,492 infections.
18th Feb: 1,868 deaths, 72,436 infections. Daily infections drop below 2,000 for the first time since January.
12th Mar: 15 confirmed cases of infection only. A significant reduction, demonstrating probable containment.

Conclusions:
1. Were China’s isolation measures effective? Yes, as evidenced during the three week period 18 Feb - 12th Mar, when 1,868 deaths and 72,436 infections fell to only 15 confirmed cases.
2. Is panic buying warranted? No. As this is an infection from which the vast majority will recover in approximately six days, panic buying in unwarranted and misdirected (eg. toilet paper, hand sanitiser, etc). More appropriate purchases are tinned and frozen food, rice, pasta, spaghetti, long-life and powdered milk, bar soap (as effective as sanitisers), disposable gloves, tinned pet food, etc.
3. Is cancelling/closing of concerts/sporting events/schools/Universities, social venues warranted? Yes! The greater the gathering, the greater the risk. National health must be treated as the Number One priority. Using good risk-assessment practices, airlines have cancelled or reduced flights, countries have adopted closed-border policies, shut educational institutions and social venues, cancelled sporting events, etc.
4. Good personal hygiene will help greatly contain and reduce the spread.

 

[Bucephalus]

Rubbish official comment.
QUOTE
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian wrote: "When did patient zero begin in US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be the US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!"
He did not offer any evidence for his suggestion that the US military might be to blame for the outbreak in China.
END QUOTE
Absolute unadulterated rubbish which no logical thinking individual would take seriously. Apart perhaps from Marine guards at the U.S. Embassy, when has PRC ever permitted U.S. troops on its soil?

Quote in my signature block below applies!

 

[gthomas04]

Sensible discussion invited.
COVID-19 Virus: Symptoms are generally mild with most sufferers recovering within six days.

With its longest exposure to COVID-19, we can examine China’s reported figures and extrapolate a reasonable forecast. From a population of approximately 1,437,731,640 there have been 74,576 (0.005%) infections from which 2,118 (0.00015%) deaths occurred. Probably, many of the deaths occurred in the elderly either by (a) age-related declining immune system, (b) life-long heavy smokers who consequently suffer pre-existing pulmonary damage, or (c) poor hygiene practices coupled with ready access to and treatment at proper health care facilities in more remote areas.

Timeline:
31st Dec 2019: China alerts WHO to several cases of unusual and previously unknown pneumonia.
11th Jan 2020: China announces first virus death of an elderly male who purchased goods from a seafood market.
22nd Jan: 17 deaths, 550 infections.
23rd Jan: Wuhan placed under quarantine.
25th Jan: Lunar New Year events cancelled.
30th Jan: 170 deaths, 7,711 infections. Virus now detected in all 31 provinces
1st Feb: 259 deaths, 11,791 infections.
8th Feb: 722 deaths, 34,546 infections.
15th Feb: 1,500 deaths, 66,492 infections.
18th Feb: 1,868 deaths, 72,436 infections. Daily infections drop below 2,000 for the first time since January.
12th Mar: 15 confirmed cases of infection only. A significant reduction, demonstrating probable containment.

Conclusions:
1. Were China’s isolation measures effective? Yes, as evidenced during the three week period 18 Feb - 12th Mar, when 1,868 deaths and 72,436 infections fell to only 15 confirmed cases.
2. Is panic buying warranted? No. As this is an infection from which the vast majority will recover in approximately six days, panic buying in unwarranted and misdirected (eg. toilet paper, hand sanitiser, etc). More appropriate purchases are tinned and frozen food, rice, pasta, spaghetti, long-life and powdered milk, bar soap (as effective as sanitisers), disposable gloves, tinned pet food, etc.
3. Is cancelling/closing of concerts/sporting events/schools/Universities, social venues warranted? Yes! The greater the gathering, the greater the risk. National health must be treated as the Number One priority. Using good risk-assessment practices, airlines have cancelled or reduced flights, countries have adopted closed-border policies, shut educational institutions and social venues, cancelled sporting events, etc.
4. Good personal hygiene will help greatly contain and reduce the spread.

Nice analysis @Bucephalus , one thing I do not understand and find unforgivable is that with all the facts available to them, this government did not slam the door shut on this virus before it got loose in the public. Instead we have had delays in stopping sporting events, delays in shutting the borders no closing of schools or other educational institutions and generally reaction as opposed to action. This is not something that a "minimalist" approach was ever going to work on and some public pain was inevitable. On their heads be it.

 

[Rami]

Considering the relatively low death rate. Is this an overreaction?

Economic loss in the billion of dollars for something a little stronger than the flu?

Am I missing something?

 

[Ferret619]

Considering the relatively low death rate. Is this an overreaction?

Economic loss in the billion of dollars for something a little stronger than the flu?

Am I missing something?

I’m not really sure... stocks are on special however.

 

[SpeedyPC]

FYI ... 60 minutes journalist goes undercover at the wet markets where the Coronavirus started in China.

 

[J.Mac]

My understanding is if the spread isn't slowed down the small % of the population who will be at high risk will all hit the health care system at the same time, resulting in higher death rates.

 

[Dman69]

Exactly. There are a finite number of ICU beds in Australia and a finite number of ventilators to support patients with respiratory difficulties. More will be ordered, sure, but theres only so many to go around..

Spread the load , yes, we'll have a health system that will be challenged, but still has a chance of coping. Just remember, we'll have doctors and nurses getting this too.

 

[Bucephalus]

Considering the relatively low death rate. Is this an overreaction?

Economic loss in the billion of dollars for something a little stronger than the flu?

Am I missing something?

1. Unless you’re one of the deceased, the point is not the death rate, rather the resources expended in containment to prevent further spread resulting in more deaths.
2. What value a human life? Billions of dollars can be recouped eventually but a human life exists only once.

 

[Missoni]

Considering the relatively low death rate. Is this an overreaction?

Economic loss in the billion of dollars for something a little stronger than the flu?

Am I missing something?

In a word - yes.

Here in the UK it is likely that intensive care doctors, as in Italy now, will have to choose who lives and who dies. The UK has 6.6 intensive care beds per 100,000 people, half the number in Italy and about a fifth of that in Germany. Italy has shown that a health system comes close to collapse if the peak of infection is not flattened. No country currently has the ICU beds, ventilators and oxygen therapy sets that would be required to deal with a peak in infection. Even though the UK is aiming at doubling its ICU capacity in the coming weeks it will likely be wholly inadequate as Italy has shown.

Further elective surgery will be cancelled and many other patients will not receive the care they require due to the demand for health care from COVID-19 patients. Mortality rates and infection rates are different for each country but there appears to be a consensus that up to 15% of those infected will require hospitalisation. Now if 70% of your community gets infected, you do the maths and perhaps enquire how many ICU beds and ventilators your community has.

 

[RustyBlade]

From the infection rate curves coming out of Europe and the action we have taken at this late stage in my perspective it's too late. My the end of this week figures will balloon. Took three days to get test results back for my child who luckily did not have Covid-19 just influenza. That was last week, since then testing results are taking a week. So the figures are way out. Time we actually go into shutdown the figures will be in the very high thousands in less than two weeks. 260 and counting this weekend so by weeks end by the western government curves over a thousand.

They will be asking my students today to separate 1.5m in the classrooms. Guess some will have to sit out in the hallway as I clearly can not see them fitting in the room very well. Don't sit together, don't touch each other or the use the door handle. Oh, and you can't pick the football up after another student touched it. Idiotic short sighted advice again from our political leaders.
Schools need to shutdown. My partner is a medico and I'll be staying home to look after the kids while she works. And no my kids won't be going out to the local mall to hang out because they are worried too.

 

[Errol]

Flying to Australia today, straight into quarantine. See what happens.

 

[Ozwhisker]

While it appears to be true that a large percentage of the population will recover within a week or so, the vulnerable (over 60 or with a pre-existing a condition impairing their health) are expected to suffer high mortality rates. Treatment for those individuals (ICU, intensive nursing) will overwhelm the health system in no time if the virus spreads quickly, hence the need to slow down the rate of infection so that the health system can cope. The following graph from an article in the Economist shows the mortality rates in China and the mortality rates by age group in Hubei for Jan -Feb 2020. If replicated elsewhere, you wouldn't want to catch the virus if you are elderly (or even a spring chicken in your sixties).

I can only agree that the panic buying is both selfish and ridiculous that is especially hard on the low income members of our community who live from week to week and cannot afford to stockpile daily necessities.The behaviour in our cities provides a shameful contrast to members of the rural communities who helped each other during the recent bushfire crisis.

 

[Mark1966]

... Idiotic short sighted advice again from our political leaders.
Schools need to shutdown. My partner is a medico and I'll be staying home to look after the kids while she works. And no my kids won't be going out to the local mall to hang out because they are worried too.

Having some contacts with those who are involved in some of these decisions I'll respectfully disagree.

The discussions are on an ongoing basis with decisions being made on priorities at the time as the situation develops based on the advice from both Commonwealth and State/Territory experts. The politicians are not wanting to out their necks out on this issue and not follow the expert advice, and the collaboration among the different leaders is actually pretty impressive to see up close.

What next for aged care, where the deaths have largely occurred, is being considered at the meeting on Tuesday night, further consideration of schools on the agenda for Friday based on developments between now and then. The right decision today might not be the right decision tomorrow, things are changing rapidly and there are triggers for action set.

Despite some initial argy-bargy and silliness, Governments are actually co-operating and co-ordinating as we would hope on this now is my information.

 

[Maxime D.]

Considering the relatively low death rate. Is this an overreaction?

Economic loss in the billion of dollars for something a little stronger than the flu?

Am I missing something?

The Influenza death rate is about 0.1% while the Covid-19 is around 3-4% according to the WHO. Also, this thing spreads like wildfire and, if not kept in check, will overflow the healthcare system.
Look at what is happening in Italy, they have 10 000 more cases than they can handle, they're stuck in the mud. We need to flatten the contamination curve so the system can cope.

 

[RustyBlade]

Having some contacts with those who are involved in some of these decisions I'll respectfully disagree.

The discussions are on an ongoing basis with decisions being made on priorities at the time as the situation develops based on the advice from both Commonwealth and State/Territory experts. The politicians are not wanting to out their necks out on this issue and not follow the expert advice, and the collaboration among the different leaders is actually pretty impressive to see up close.

What next for aged care, where the deaths have largely occurred, is being considered at the meeting on Tuesday night, further consideration of schools on the agenda for Friday based on developments between now and then. The right decision today might not be the right decision tomorrow, things are changing rapidly and there are triggers for action set.

Despite some initial argy-bargy and silliness, Governments are actually co-operating and co-ordinating as we would hope on this now is my information.

How about the medicos make the decision and not political advisers who are not medical. The Chief Medical Officer of Australia has already conceded that the PM did not take his advice but his own. Lives are at stake.

The States disagree and don't look like they are working together at the higher level. WA wants to shut schools and Vic & ACT have gone rogue and declared a state emergency. Canberra are not in charge as states doing what they want.

 

[SpeedyPC]

I’m shocked and horrified that people in US are preparing to buy guns and ammo for protection from the Coronavirus, IF they cannot get fresh water, clothes, fuel, food and medical supplies.

 

[Mark1966]

How about the medicos make the decision and not political advisers who are not medical.

The medical advice is the driving factor, it is the only basis on which you will get the leaders with different political views to cooperate like they have

The Chief Medical Officer of Australia has already conceded that the PM did not take his advice but his own. Lives are at stake.

On one issue where the Government went further, faster than the advice from memory.

The States disagree and don't look like they are working together at the higher level. WA wants to shut schools and Vic & ACT have gone rogue and declared a state emergency.

It is widely reported that States/Territories went into the meeting with a variety of positions around school closures, but all agreed to a common position of no closures. That looks like working together to me.

Declarations of a public health emergency by VIC and ACT today, following SA on Sunday, QLD previously, not sure about the other jurisdictions, is a technical requirement to activate powers under state based public health legislation. This then provides the mechanism for the legal enforcement, if required, of the new mandatory self-isolation requirements. All jurisdictions have/will do it to makes these powers available, it is not going rogue despite the breathless media coverage.

Canberra are not in charge as states doing what they want.

Correct, public health is largely a State/Territory matter (like bushfires BTW) but the public expectation is that the Commonwealth Government, and in particular the Prime Minister of whatever political persuasion, will 'lead the nation'. So the Prime Minister of the day tries to do so, but really with one hand tied behind his/her back as they need the buy-in of the States/Territories as any could go it alone at any time.

I cannot think of a time where the PM, Premiers and Chief Ministers have been 'meeting' this regularly and all involved in determining a coordinated response on an issue. In the Canberra bubble some old timers I know are pretty gob-smacked at the level of coordination being shown.

 

[RustyBlade]

@Mark1966 I'm not going to get into a debate about each thing. Generally speaking and from my medico mates their advice that they have received is differing from what had been released by our elected leaders.
Hence independent institutions have acted against the governments advice because they sought independent specialise medical counsel.
Think we need to not overreact though heed advice from the medicos and unfortunately not from our elected leaders misdirection.
Distancing and isolation is prescribed.

Seeing a fractured response from differing states shows that the direction from the federal government is incorrect or misleading.

 

[sealer]

I think it will take more time to break out in Aus. Still warm here. While Australia has a similar (but tighter) links to China as Europe, Europe is in Winter time, as any place with an outbreak.
Taking measures in advance is great (I am embarrased of what spanish goverment has done), I hope my uni won't be completely locked and still I can sign my job contract this week....